The Chargers’ Season Is Unravelling, and Justin Herbert Is at the Centre of It

Before the 2026 NFL season started, I made what I thought was one of my crazier predictions: the Los Angeles Chargers would miss the playoffs and Jim Harbaugh would get fired. At the time, it felt difficult to justify on paper. They still had Justin Herbert, an extremely talented roster and had brought in Mike McDaniel with the expectation that his offense could finally unlock another level from Herbert. Four games into the season, that prediction suddenly does not look quite as crazy. The Chargers are 0-4, their playoff hopes are already hanging by a thread, and what was supposed to be a season of progression is quickly beginning to look like a crisis.

Yesterday's 30-23 defeat to Seattle summed up where this team currently is. The Chargers found themselves 27-6 down before eventually fighting their way back into the game, only for another mistake to end any chance of completing the comeback. Herbert threw two interceptions and then lost a fumble on the final drive after being strip-sacked with Los Angeles still having an opportunity to tie the game. It took his numbers through four games to 816 passing yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions, with a completion percentage below 60% and a passer rating of just 70.6.

There are plenty of problems around Herbert, and I do not think all of this can simply be placed on him. Mike McDaniel's offense has been extremely disappointing so far, despite arriving with huge expectations over what he could do with this group. The offensive line has struggled to protect Herbert and injuries are now becoming an even bigger concern, with Joe Alt, Rashawn Slater and Ladd McConkey all dealing with issues during the Seattle game. Herbert was sacked four times and hit nine times on Sunday alone. Even before the latest defeat, McDaniel had publicly taken responsibility for an offense that entered Week 4 ranked 29th in scoring.

But at some point, the quarterback has to become part of the conversation.

Herbert has always been one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in the league. He can make throws very few players in the league can make and has produced some incredible individual performances throughout his career. However, when you are the franchise quarterback and one of the players a team is built around, there eventually comes a point where talent has to translate into winning. This season the Chargers needed Herbert to be the player who could cover up some of the problems around him. Instead, through the opening month, he has contributed to them. Six interceptions in four games is simply not good enough, and too many important moments have ended with Herbert either failing to create something or making a mistake that puts the game out of reach.

I don't think Herbert has suddenly become a bad quarterback, but I think there has sometimes been a tendency to protect him from criticism because of how good he looks when everything is working. The offensive coordinator gets blamed, the offensive line gets blamed, the receivers get blamed and eventually the head coach gets blamed. Some of those criticisms are completely fair, particularly with how disjointed this offense currently looks, but Herbert is now in his seventh NFL season. He cannot forever be viewed as the quarterback who simply needs the perfect situation around him before we judge whether the Chargers are actually capable of competing at the highest level with him.

The bigger problem for Los Angeles is that there is very little time left to figure this out. Only one team in NFL history has reached the playoffs after starting 0-4, and ironically that was the 1992 San Diego Chargers. Los Angeles now has Denver at home before travelling to Kansas City, followed by the Rams after the bye and then games against Houston and Baltimore. That is not exactly the schedule you want when you are desperately searching for your first win of the season.

This is where the season could unravel very quickly. At 0-4, the conversation is still technically about whether the Chargers can save their season. If this becomes 0-5 or 0-6, the conversation completely changes. Suddenly you are no longer asking how they can get back into the playoff race. You are asking whether the organisation should start looking towards 2027, what changes need to be made to the coaching staff and whether continuing to chase a season that is already lost actually makes sense.

That is when a team that entered the year expecting to compete can very quickly find itself looking down the barrel of what effectively becomes a tanking season.

There is still far too much talent on this Chargers roster for me to believe they are genuinely one of the worst teams in football, and that is probably what makes this start even more concerning. They were not built to rebuild. They were built to compete now. Jim Harbaugh, Mike McDaniel and the offensive line all deserve scrutiny for how badly the opening month has gone, but Herbert has to be for me the biggest part of that discussion as well.

My preseason prediction was that the Chargers would miss the playoffs. Four weeks ago, that felt like one of the biggest risks I took in my NFL predictions.

Four weeks later, missing the playoffs might be the least of their problems.